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Jeff Dunsavage, Senior Research Analyst, Triple-I (12/10/2021)
The Colorado State University (CSU)Tropical Meteorology Project estimates that there is a 40 percent chance that North Atlantic sea temperatures will be above average and no El Niño will occur in 2022, indicating a higher-than-average season.
Triple-I non-resident scholar Dr. Phil Klotzbach and CSU estimate 13 to 16 named storms, six to eight hurricanes, and two or three major hurricanes next season. Klotzbach says the primary driver of variability is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which affects storm activity. El Niño reduces activity by generating increased vertical wind shear. La Niña conditions have the opposite effect.
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You can find the most up-to-date information regarding current storm activity from the National Hurricane Center – HERE
Here’s a helpful link from the National Weather Service regarding hurricane preparedness
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